Elon Musk, Michael Burry and Jeremy Grantham prepare for stocks to fall and the US economy to enter a recession . The author of the book The Black Swan , Nassim Taleb, and Mark Spitznagel of Universa Investments, who specialize in protecting portfolios against unpredictable events with extreme repercussions, also predict a plummet in asset prices and a painful relapse. 1. Michael Burry The American investor is one of the few people who anticipated and benefited from the collapse of the 2007 real estate bubble and its resulting financial crisis. This week he posted a tweet in which he sent a clear message to investors: "sell." The fund manager, made famous by the movie The Big Short , has compared the S&P 500's rally this year to the benchmark index's brief rally during the dot-com boom . He has previously warned that the index could plunge more than 50% from its current level below 1,900 points and has suggested that a multi-year US recession is a virtual certainty.
Jeremy Grantham In his latest analysis, Grantham has acknowledged the magnitude of the market decline last year , but notes that the slowdown may not be over. "Although the worst fears have disappeared from the market, valuations remain far from positive in the long term ," said the market historian and co-founder of GMO. "If something breaks and the world goes Asia Phone Number List into a serious recession, the market could fall by up to 50% ," he adds. "At best, at least a modest further decline is likely." The veteran investor has stated that the S&P 500 will most likely fall by 23%, reaching around 3,200 points this year or next, and that it will spend some time below that level. He has also suggested that the index could plunge 50% in real terms from its peak in early 2022. The bearish trader who predicted the dot-com bubble says stocks are still as overvalued as they were in 1929 and 2000 3. Elon Musk Musk has proposed a scenario of a serious economic recession.
During Tesla's latest earnings presentation he warned that fear of a crisis could cause shares to spiral downward. "We'll probably have a pretty tough recession this year." "When there is a recession and people panic in the stock market, then the value of stocks can fall to surprisingly low levels ." The CEO of Tesla, SpaceX and Twitter has advised people to prepare for the tough road ahead by conserving cash, avoiding debt and taking less risk. 4. Nassim Taleb Stocks soared after the financial crisis due to near-zero interest rates, which made it easier for companies to fuel their growth with cheap debt. However, now the Federal Reserve has raised rates to almost 5% in an attempt to curb historic inflation , worsening the market context. Taleb, Universa advisor and statistics guru, highlighted these statements on Bloomberg this week. " The stock market is too overvalued for interest rates that do not reach 1%," he said. "I think we could have a crash in many, many prices.
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发表于 2024-3-7 12:57:55